Prabowo Subianto has ordered the closure of 1,000 illegal tin mines in the Bangka Belitung Province. The SHFE tin price surged sharply during yesterday's night session, driven by this news. [SMM Tin Morning Brief]

SMM Tin Morning News on September 30, 2025:

Futures: The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2511) opened significantly higher during the night session and then stabilized, closing at 279,600 yuan/mt, up 2.62% from the previous trading day.

Macro: (1) President Prabowo Subianto has ordered the closure of 1,000 illegal tin mines in the Bangka Belitung province and launched a comprehensive crackdown on smuggling routes, which have resulted in financial losses amounting to trillions of Indonesian rupiah for Indonesia. He commanded the military, police, and customs to launch a joint operation starting September 1, aiming to block the export of illegally mined tin, which accounts for nearly 80% of shipments. "Bangka Belitung has long been one of the world's major tin hubs. However, there are 1,000 illegal mines. Starting September 1, I have ordered the military, police, and customs to launch a large-scale operation. We have cut off 80% of smuggled tin," President Prabowo stated on Monday (September 29, 2025), as quoted by Antara News Agency. He emphasized that this move could save the country up to 22 trillion Indonesian rupiah this year and reach 45 trillion Indonesian rupiah by 2026. President Prabowo also highlighted the rare earth minerals in mine waste and instructed customs to hire chemists to identify and protect these valuable resources. (2) The Dutch government stated on Monday that all EU member states have joined a chip alliance led by the Netherlands, which is pushing for revisions to the EU Chips Act. This organization, named the "Semicon Coalition," was jointly established by the Netherlands and eight other member states in March this year. The alliance believes that the EU needs to revise its Chips Act, shifting from a general market share target of 20% to more targeted actions to ensure the security of critical technologies, expedite approval processes, and deepen skills and financing across the entire semiconductor chain. (3) Eight departments, including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, issued the Work Plan for Stable Growth in the Non-Ferrous Metals Industry (2025-2026), which mentions strengthening resource exploration and utilization. Implementing a new round of strategic actions for mineral exploration breakthroughs, enhancing surveys and exploration of resources such as copper, aluminum, lithium, nickel, cobalt, and tin to achieve new exploration results. Improving the competitive transfer methods of mining rights and releasing mining rights in a scientific and orderly manner. Supporting research and development of green and efficient mining, beneficiation, smelting technologies, and equipment for low-grade, co-occurring, and refractory resources to improve resource recovery rates, beneficiation recovery rates, and comprehensive utilization rates. Supporting eligible regions to establish renewable resource recycling bases and strengthening the comprehensive utilization of scrap non-ferrous metals such as copper scrap and aluminum scrap, as well as emerging solid wastes such as spent power batteries and spent PV modules. The Strategic Mineral Resources Industry Basic Data Public Service Platform has been established to provide precise and efficient services for mineral resource utilization, among other purposes.

Fundamentals: (1) Supply-side disruptions: Overall tin ore supply in key production areas such as Yunnan is tightening, with some smelters maintaining production halts for maintenance in September (Bullish ★). (2) Demand side: The solder industry, which is the main consumer of tin, has seen a significant reduction in orders due to weak demand in the consumer electronics and home appliance markets. Downstream purchasing remains cautious, and high prices are noticeably suppressing actual consumption. Limited boost from emerging sectors: Although the increase in AI computing power and growth in PV installations have driven some tin consumption, their current contribution remains small and insufficient to offset the decline in consumption from traditional sectors.

Spot market: With the National Day holiday approaching, some enterprises have conducted small-scale pre-holiday stockpiling. However, after a sharp rise in tin prices during yesterday's night session, downstream enterprises may suspend purchases and restocking, awaiting a price pullback after the holiday.

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